A new study has predicted that climate change could lead to a wider spread of infection-causing fungi.
Fungi are members of a group of eukaryotic organisms that include microorganisms like yeasts and molds.
While they play important roles in the environment and medicine, they can also be harmful — with some fungal infections proving deadly to human health.
The study, conducted by researchers from Manchester University, used computer models to forecast the future spread of Aspergillus.
Aspergillus is a common species of fungi that causes aspergillosis, a life-threatening lung infection that is difficult to diagnose and has a mortality rate of 20% to 40%.
The study, which is yet to be peer-reviewed, suggests that rising global temperatures are enabling the spread of this dangerous fungus into new regions, including North America, Europe, China, and Russia.
However, Aspergillus is divided into two main types in the study.
Aspergillus fumigatus, which thrives in temperate climates, and Aspergillus flavus, which prefers hotter conditions.
The spread of Aspergillus fumigatus is predicted to shift northward toward the North Pole, and if global warming continues, cases in Europe could rise by 77% by 2100, putting up to 9 million people at risk.
While the spread of Aspergillus flavus was found to potentially increase by 16% if high fossil fuel use continues, with the fungus expanding into parts of North America, northern China, and Russia.
Aspergillus flavus causes severe infections in humans, especially those with weakened immune systems, as it can “start to grow and basically kind of eat you from the inside out”. It is resistant to many antifungal treatments.
The species also attacks various food crops, raising concerns about food security.
Meanwhile, rising temperatures in regions like sub-Saharan Africa could make the climate too hot for Aspergillus funigatus to survive, potentially disrupting ecosystems where fungi help maintain healthy soils.
Warming conditions may also be increasing the fungi’s heat tolerance, enabling them to better survive within the human body.
Extreme weather events, including droughts, floods, and heat waves, can influence fungal behaviour, helping to spread their spores across wider areas.
Norman van Rijn, one of the study’s authors, said fungal pathogens have been largely overlooked compared to viruses and parasites, despite posing an increasing threat.
He called for greater awareness and timely interventions to curb their potential global impact.
“We’ve already seen the emergence of the fungus Candida auris due to rising temperatures, but, until now, we had little information of how other fungi might respond to this change in the environment,” he said.
“Fungi are relatively under-researched compared to viruses and parasites, but these maps show that fungal pathogens will likely impact most areas of the world in the future.
“Raising awareness and developing effective interventions for fungal pathogens will be essential to mitigate the consequences of this.”
However, more research is still said to be needed to address uncertainties, including clearer data on where the pathogen exists in the environment and who is most at risk of infection.
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